In the last presidential election, the race came down to Biden and Trump. Four years later, the Democrats and Republicans have made their nominations for the 2024 election, a rematch between these same two politicians, the first rematch in a presidential election in 70 years. Back in 2020, Biden and the Democrats secured the presidency, but it was not by a landslide. In fact, popular votes were split relatively evenly, with Biden winning 51.6% and Trump 46.9%, the remaining percentage going to other, smaller parties. In electoral votes, Biden managed to get further ahead, securing 306 to Trump’s 232, ultimately earning himself the presidency.
So, what can be expected to be similar and different between 2020 and 2024? To begin with, in Trump’s inauguration speech in 2017, he described his goals to make “Every decision on trade, on taxes, on immigration, on foreign affairs…to benefit American workers and American families. We must protect our borders from the ravages of other countries making our products, stealing our companies, and destroying our jobs,” and this theme continued through his re-election campaign in 2020. Now, in 2024, his campaigning strategy has essentially remained the same, zeroing in on stricter immigration laws, which includes a pledge to “seal the border” and implement “record-setting” deportations.” Joe Biden will also be running on a similar platform to his platform in the 2020 election, one that has been called a stark contrast to Trump’s MAGA or “Make America Great Again” campaign by CNN and BBC News.
The differences between 2020 and 2024 come down to each candidate’s character and abilities. Donald Trump’s character and ethics have been called into question by many American voters, as the former president has been indicted in four separate cases and faces 91 total criminal counts. Additionally, in the two elections he has run in, Trump has never won the popular vote, losing it to Clinton in 2016 (but winning the electoral vote), and to Biden in 2020. This questions whether he can muster enough backing from the American public to capture the presidency.
On the flip side, many Americans doubt Biden’s ability to be effective in the presidential position if re-elected, considering his age. The current president is 80 and would be nearing 85 by the end of his second term if re-elected. A poll conducted in August of last year found that 77% of U.S. adults, including 69% of Democrats, viewed Biden as too old to be effective in office for four more years. Furthermore, many voters disagree with his handling of the Israel-Palestine war, potentially making him unfavorable for re-election.
Predictions for the future of the presidency often look at nationwide polls. While election statistics are vital to look at on a broad national level, they are also essential to view at a narrower state level. While Hunterdon County is typically regarded as a Republican county, New Jersey has supported the Democratic candidate in every presidential election since 1992. However, the margin deciding who won New Jersey’s electoral votes was insignificant in 2020. Despite NJ’s longstanding blue-state identity, the split was only about 60/40 in Biden’s favor. This was enough to obtain the electoral votes as NJ is a winner-take-all state (only Nebraska and Maine are not), but it does show how close the election was then and how close it may be again.
References
CNN. (2020). 2020 presidential election results. Www.cnn.com. https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/results/president
Epstein, K. (2024, March 13). Biden and Trump set for election rematch after securing party nominations. Www.bbc.com. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-68550523
Sanders, L., & Cooper, J. J. (2023, November 2). A year from 2024 election, Biden strategy memo says he’ll revive 2020 themes, draw contrast to Trump. AP News. https://apnews.com/article/biden-2024-reelection-campaign-memo-trump-contrast-56948abbdd5e046a45c644ffacc687ae
Voting. (n.d.). New Jersey Youth Resource Spot. Retrieved March 13, 2024, from https://www.nj.gov/njyrs/life-skills/voting/
